Our record
Every edge our scan finds is logged as a paper bet the moment it appears, by the system, not by us. Each one is graded against the fair closing price and the final score. We publish all of them, with the sample size, including the stretches that look bad.
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How we grade
- The scan prices every game line at FanDuel and DraftKings against the sharp books. Any bet with an edge of 2% or more is logged the first time it shows up, at the best price on offer, with its book and the fair price. Nobody picks and chooses.
- Just before the game starts, we take the sharp books’ prices, remove the vig, and save the fair closing price.
- Closing-line value is the fair closing chance minus the chance the logged price implied. A positive number means the pick got a better price than the market settled on.
- After the game, the final score settles each pick as a paper bet of one flat unit at the logged price. Nothing is deleted after the fact.
- A pick appears on this page only once its game has started.
Why not win rate? It takes thousands of bets to separate skill from luck. Here’s the longer answer.