NFL key numbers
14.8% of NFL games since 2015 ended with a 3-point margin and 8.7% with 7, counted from 3,092 games.
Most common margins
A key number is a final margin that comes up far more often than the ones beside it, because of how scoring works. The margin is the winner’s score minus the loser’s.
| Margin | Games | Share of games |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 459 | 14.8% |
| 7 | 269 | 8.7% |
| 6 | 215 | 7.0% |
| 14 | 159 | 5.1% |
| 10 | 146 | 4.7% |
| 4 | 145 | 4.7% |
| 2 | 142 | 4.6% |
| 1 | 138 | 4.5% |
| 5 | 137 | 4.4% |
| 8 | 133 | 4.3% |
Margin 3
- Games
- 459
- Share of games
- 14.8%
Margin 7
- Games
- 269
- Share of games
- 8.7%
Margin 6
- Games
- 215
- Share of games
- 7.0%
Margin 14
- Games
- 159
- Share of games
- 5.1%
Margin 10
- Games
- 146
- Share of games
- 4.7%
Margin 4
- Games
- 145
- Share of games
- 4.7%
Margin 2
- Games
- 142
- Share of games
- 4.6%
Margin 1
- Games
- 138
- Share of games
- 4.5%
Margin 5
- Games
- 137
- Share of games
- 4.4%
Margin 8
- Games
- 133
- Share of games
- 4.3%
How often a spread pushes
A push is a tie against the spread: the favorite wins by exactly the closing number, and the bet is refunded. Half-point spreads can’t push.
| Spread | Games | Pushed | Push rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 206 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 80 | 2 | 2.5% |
| 3 | 444 | 47 | 10.6% |
| 4 | 133 | 2 | 1.5% |
| 5 | 63 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 144 | 6 | 4.2% |
| 7 | 178 | 13 | 7.3% |
| 8 | 41 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 82 | 6 | 7.3% |
| 14 | 42 | 2 | 4.8% |
Spread 1
- Games
- 206
- Pushed
- 0
- Push rate
- 0.0%
Spread 2
- Games
- 80
- Pushed
- 2
- Push rate
- 2.5%
Spread 3
- Games
- 444
- Pushed
- 47
- Push rate
- 10.6%
Spread 4
- Games
- 133
- Pushed
- 2
- Push rate
- 1.5%
Spread 5
- Games
- 63
- Pushed
- 0
- Push rate
- 0.0%
Spread 6
- Games
- 144
- Pushed
- 6
- Push rate
- 4.2%
Spread 7
- Games
- 178
- Pushed
- 13
- Push rate
- 7.3%
Spread 8
- Games
- 41
- Pushed
- 0
- Push rate
- 0.0%
Spread 10
- Games
- 82
- Pushed
- 6
- Push rate
- 7.3%
Spread 14
- Games
- 42
- Pushed
- 2
- Push rate
- 4.8%
Most common totals
The total is both teams’ scores added together. Totals spread over more values than margins do, so a single number stands out less.
| Total | Games | Share of games |
|---|---|---|
| 51 | 119 | 3.9% |
| 44 | 116 | 3.8% |
| 40 | 109 | 3.5% |
| 41 | 109 | 3.5% |
| 43 | 109 | 3.5% |
| 37 | 106 | 3.4% |
| 47 | 101 | 3.3% |
| 33 | 88 | 2.9% |
| 48 | 82 | 2.6% |
| 34 | 78 | 2.5% |
Total 51
- Games
- 119
- Share of games
- 3.9%
Total 44
- Games
- 116
- Share of games
- 3.8%
Total 40
- Games
- 109
- Share of games
- 3.5%
Total 41
- Games
- 109
- Share of games
- 3.5%
Total 43
- Games
- 109
- Share of games
- 3.5%
Total 37
- Games
- 106
- Share of games
- 3.4%
Total 47
- Games
- 101
- Share of games
- 3.3%
Total 33
- Games
- 88
- Share of games
- 2.9%
Total 48
- Games
- 82
- Share of games
- 2.6%
Total 34
- Games
- 78
- Share of games
- 2.5%
How this was counted
- 3,092 NFL games, seasons 2015 to 2026: regular season and playoffs.
- Source: nflverse games data. Counted on .
- These are plain counts of final scores. Nothing is modeled, and nothing here predicts a game.
- Push rates use each game’s closing spread from the same source, and show every whole-number spread with at least 30 games.
To cite this page: Parity Odds, “NFL key numbers,” parityodds.com/research/nfl-key-numbers, counted 2026-10-08.
These counts are why half a point matters more near some numbers than others. How Parity Odds prices a bet.