How to devig a one-sided prop, like anytime touchdown scorer

An anytime touchdown scorer or anytime goalscorer market can't be devigged the way a two-sided prop can, because devigging needs either two sides that cover the whole outcome, or a full field where exactly one entry wins. Anytime-scorer markets are neither: a book posts one "yes" price per player, several players can each score, and there's no "no" side listed to divide against. The fix isn't a formula; it's comparing the book's price to a number you build yourself, or to the same side at another book.

Why the usual method needs two sides

Removing the vig from a normal two-way price works because the two outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive: exactly one of them happens. Take -150 and +130 on a moneyline. Their implied chances, 60.0% and 43.5%, add to 103.5%; dividing each by that total scales them back down to 58.0% and 42.0%, numbers that now add to exactly 100%. That only makes sense because one side or the other has to win.

The same logic extends to a field with more than two entries, as long as the field is still a closed set where one, and only one, outcome occurs. A first-touchdown-scorer market fits that shape: in a given game, exactly one player scores first, or nobody does. List every player plus a "no touchdown" catch-all, add up the implied chances, and the excess over 100% is the market's margin, removable the same way.

Why anytime-scorer markets don't fit that shape

Anytime touchdown scorer doesn't work like that, because the events aren't mutually exclusive. More than one player can score an anytime touchdown in the same game, so there's no rule that says the field has to sum to anything in particular.

Say a team's offense is priced for anytime TD at:

| Player | Price | Implied chance | |---|---|---| | RB1 | +150 | 40.0% | | WR1 | +190 | 34.5% | | WR2 | +260 | 27.8% | | TE1 | +340 | 22.7% | | RB2 | +600 | 14.3% | | WR3 | +750 | 11.8% |

Add those up and the field comes to 151.0%. Forcing that down to 100%, the way the two-sided method would, means dividing every number by 1.510: RB1 drops from 40.0% to 26.5%, WR3 from 11.8% to 7.8%, and so on. That's not a fair price with the vig removed; it's the result of pretending exactly one of these six players scores and the rest go scoreless, which isn't how the market works. A team can produce three different scorers, one repeat scorer, or none at all. The field summing to 151% instead of, say, 120% or 190% tells you almost nothing about the book's actual margin, because there's no reference point the honest sum should hit. You can't back a vig out of a number that was never supposed to equal 100% in the first place.

What to compare the price against instead

Since there's no second side to divide against, the price only becomes useful once you have an independent number to put next to it.

Build or use your own probability. Whatever inputs go into it, target share, red-zone role, recent usage, matchup, the output is a single number: your own estimate of the chance that player scores anytime. Compare that directly to the book's implied chance. If your number is 32% and the book's +190 implies 34.5%, the book's price is asking you to think the player is more likely to score than you do; there's no edge there. If your number comes in above the book's implied chance, that gap is your edge, the same way it would be on any other bet once you've checked both sides at a real price. How player props get priced covers where a book's own number for this kind of market comes from, and why it tends to carry more margin than a game line in the first place.

Shop the same side across books. You can't turn any single book's anytime-TD price into a fair number, but you can compare it with other books quoting the identical bet. Three books on the same player might show +150, +165, and +140, implying 40.0%, 37.7%, and 41.7%. None of those is vig-free, but +165 pays more for the same outcome, so it's the better price regardless of which number is closest to true. This isn't devigging; it's just making sure the margin you're paying is the smallest one on offer.

Check whether your book actually offers two sides. A handful of markets post both "yes" and "no" prices on the same prop. If yours does, that's a genuine two-sided price, and the ordinary de-vig calculator applies the same as it would to a moneyline. Most anytime-scorer boards don't list a "no" side at all, so check the bet slip before assuming one exists.

The takeaway

A devigged price only means something when the market it came from has a real complement, two sides, or a closed field that sums to one outcome. Anytime touchdown and anytime goalscorer markets have neither, so the honest move is to stop looking for a vig-free number from the board itself and compare the book's single price to a number you trust: your own projection, or the best price for the same bet across your other books.

Betting is for adults 21+ where legal, with money you can afford to lose.