Closing line value (CLV) calculator
Compare the odds you bet with the closing line to see whether you beat the market, and by how much.
Result
- Fair closing chance
- 42.0%
- Fair closing odds
- +138
- Chance your odds implied
- 40.0%
- Closing-line value
- +2.0 points
- Expected value at the close, per $1
- 5.0%
You beat the closing line
Pro fills in the fair price from the sharp market for every bet at your books, and finds the best places to use a boost tonight. See Pro
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How it works
Closing-line value compares the price you took with the fair price just before the game starts. The closing line is the market's last and best-informed estimate, so beating it regularly is the earliest sign that your bets have an edge.
Enter the odds you bet and both sides of the closing price, ideally from a sharp book. We take the vig out of the close to get the fair closing chance, then compare it with the chance your odds implied.
One bet proves little. CLV means something as an average over many bets, with the number of bets next to it.
How do you calculate closing line value?
Take the fair closing chance and subtract the chance your odds implied. Say you bet a team at +150 and a sharp book closes at +130 / -150. With the vig removed, the fair closing chance is 42.0%. Your +150 implied 40.0%, so you beat the close by 2.0 points.
Put another way, at the fair closing price your bet had an expected value of 5.0% of the stake. The expected value calculator runs the same math for a bet you haven't placed yet.
Is positive CLV the same as winning?
No. A bet that beat the close can still lose, and one that didn't can still win. Why we grade on closing-line value explains why it still tells you more than a win rate over the same number of bets.
More detail: Why we grade on closing-line value, not win rate.