No-sweat bet calculator
What a "no sweat" or second-chance bet is worth when a loss comes back as a bonus bet.
Result
- Fair chance
- 42.0%
- Expected value
- $33.03
- EV per $1
- 33.0%
Worth it: positive expected value
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How it works
A no-sweat bet refunds your stake as a bonus bet if you lose. The refund isn't cash: it's worth what you can convert it for, about 70% of face value.
That's why these offers favor longer odds too: you're more likely to lose and collect the refund, and more likely to win big when you don't.
Books call it a no-sweat bet, a second-chance bet, or bet insurance, and the terms vary by offer. Check your book's current terms for the maximum refund, which odds qualify, and when the bonus bet expires.
Two offers refund in narrower cases: parlay insurance pays only when a parlay misses by one leg, and an early payout only when your team blows a big lead. A "bet $5, get $200" offer pays a fixed pot of bonus bets instead of a refund.
How much is a no-sweat bet worth?
Like any promo, it's worth the bet's own expected value plus what the refund adds. The calculator above starts with an example: $100 at +120, when a sharp book has the same side at +130 / -150. With the vig removed, the fair chance is 42.0%.
On its own, the bet is worth -$7.56, because +120 is below the fair price. It loses 58.0% of the time, and each loss returns a $100 bonus bet. If you convert that bonus bet at 70%, it's worth $70, so the refund adds $40.59 on average. Together the no-sweat bet is worth $33.03.
How much does the conversion rate matter?
A lot. It's the biggest assumption in the math. Convert the same refund at 50% instead of 70% and the offer above drops from $33.03 to $21.43. The rate depends on how you use the bonus bet, not on the bet that earned it: long odds with a tight hedge at another book convert best.
What's a good bonus bet conversion rate? covers what to aim for, and the bonus bet converter works out the hedge.
More detail: How to hedge a no-sweat bet, What is a no-sweat bet? How the refund works and what it's worth.